Florida Politics: Poll: Nancy Soderberg neck and neck with Mike Waltz

A new poll from Ambassador Nancy Soderberg, the Democratic nominee in Florida’s 6th Congressional District, shows her within one point of Republican Mike Waltz in a district Donald Trump won by 17 points in 2016.

The poll was conducted by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research and showed Waltz earning 47 percent of the vote to Soderberg’s 46 percent.

The firm surveyed 400 likely voters Sep. 4-6. The poll has a margin of error of 4.9 percentage points.

With the caveat that publicly released campaign polls are to be taken with a grain of salt, this poll does track with some analysts’ views of the race.

While the Cook Political Report and Larry Sabato both peg this as a “likely Republican” seat, FiveThirtyEight sees a closer race, projecting Waltz to win by less than four percentage points.

If the race is that close, a poll showing a one-point margin certainly isn’t unreasonable, and may give Democrats hope this seat is flippable despite the district going easily for Trump in 2016.

The seat is currently held by Republican gubernatorial candidate Ron DeSantis, who declined to run for re-election to pursue the head job in Florida. The fact that the race is open may also put a dent in Republicans’ chances.

Soderberg also has a money lead over Waltz in a race that seems to be earning a lot of attention from Democrats.

Soderberg’s poll also showed Democrats up two points in the general congressional ballot. That’s actually below where most other surveys have the Democrats. FiveThirtyEight’s aggregator shows Republicans trailing by more than eight percentage points.

CD 6 covers parts of St. Johns, Putnam, Flagler and Volusia counties. The general election will be held Nov. 6.

By Ryan Nicol

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