Another Poll Shows Soderberg and Waltz Tied, Data Projects Undecided Voters Will Move Toward Soderberg


October 10, 2018

Daytona Beach — Today, former U.S. Ambassador and FL-06 Democratic nominee Nancy Soderberg’s campaign released the results of the latest poll of Congressional District 6, showing Soderberg and Michael Waltz in a dead heat in a +7 Republican district, which went for Trump by 17 points. This is the second data point in the last month showing this race deadlocked.

Neck and neck in Florida’s 6th Congressional District

To: Interested Parties

From: Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research

With less than 30 days to go, the race between Nancy Soderberg and Michael Waltz remains a statistical tie. A recent survey of likely voters in Florida’s 6th Congressional District finds Soderberg statistically tied with Waltz (45 percent Soderberg – 45 percent Waltz – 9 percent undecided) in a district that is considered a +7 Republican district and which Donald Trump won by 17 points.

Figure 1: Vote Choice

Waltz is failing to motivate his own base, earning just 75 percent of the vote among registered Republicans. Soderberg receives 82 percent among registered Democrats. Soderberg also leads Waltz among self-ascribed independents by 20 percentage points and voters who are currently undecided more closely resemble Soderberg supporters than Waltz supporters. Soderberg’s message and experience are breaking through to voters. Among those who have heard something about her over the past few weeks, half (50 percent) say it makes them feel more favorable towards her. Voters feel that Soderberg is more likely than Waltz to work with both Democrats and Republicans, reduce the cost of health care, protect Social Security, and stand up for regular people. As voters in the district continue to learn more about both Soderberg and Waltz, the data suggests they will continue to move towards Soderberg.

1 GQR conducted a live telephone survey among 400 likely general election voters in Florida’s 6th Congressional District. The survey was conducted from October 1-4, 2018. The margin of error on a sample of this size is ± 4.9 percent at the 95 percent confidence interval. Forty-three percent of the interviews were conducted on cell phones. Sample composition for party registration was 33% Democrat, 42% Republican, 24% No Party Affiliation.

For more information contact: Wellesley Daniels